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The size of the population restrains employment levels, which in turn limits the amount of production. Jobs in a specific industry are directly affected by the size of demand for that industry's particular products. Employment opportunities within specific industries, as in medical and health, have grown as a result of increased demand for their services. Thus, there is a high demand for occupational skills to accommodate this growing need. In order to gauge growth expectations for the future, it is necessary to analyze patterns in the past. Population Population patterns can have a direct affect upon job opportunities. Fluctuations in population change affect the demand for products in different ways. Demand for health and medical services, for examples, is likely to rise with a growing population of elderly individuals. Additionally, population shifts directly influence the demographic make up of the labor force. Over the next decade, a 24 million people projected increase of the U.S. population equates to a rise in consumers to buy goods and services. This will necessarily require more jobs in varied industries. The differences in growth rate between industries will be highly dependent on age demographics for the future. The age population between sixteen and twenty-four is projected to increase by seven percent through the next decade. The baby boomer group (those in the age group of fifty-five to sixty-four) will increase the most, while those between the ages of thirty-five to forty-four will decrease as a result of the decline in births after the baby boomer period. Minority groups, particularly Hispanics, will grow in the U.S. population over the next decade. Hispanics are expected to constitute the fastest growing of all minority groups in the U.S. Labor Force Population overwhelmingly is the largest determinant in affecting the size and nature of the labor force. The labor force is expected to grow by twelve percent over the next eight-year period. The U.S. labor force will constitute a more diverse demographic over the next decade. This is due to the growth rate of Hispanics and the relative decline of white, non-Hispanics in the workforce. Hispanics are even projected to surpass the number of blacks in the workforce by 2012. While whites will remain the largest group in the work force over the next decade, growth rates within the labor force will be fastest among Asians. Both men and women will rise in number in the work force, although women will grow at faster rates than men. In fact, men are expected to experience a one percent decline in growth rates over the next eight years, while women will enjoy a one percent increase. By 2012, growth rates for those aged between 16 and 24 are projected to decline to 15 percent, while those between ages of 25 and 54 will decline to around 65 percent. Jobs held by those over the age of 55 will increase to 19 percent by 2012 as a result of aging baby-boomers. Employment Outlook By 2012 Overall employment numbers are projected to grow to 165 million (14.8 percent), although the growth will not be distributed evenly across all industries. This variation will depend on changing demands, technologies, and other factors. In the following sections, shifts in employment are analyzed from an occupational and industrial perspective. Industrial employment is evaluated in terms that reflect primary wage and salary-employment, which does not account for additional jobs held by employees. However, agricultural employment numbers do include unpaid family workers with self-employed individuals and wage and salary workers. Occupational employment is analyzed as it accounts for overall employment including self-employed, unpaid family workers, and wage and salary earners. In 2002, wage and salary accounted for the majority of the 144 million total U.S. jobs. The numbers for this group were followed by distant amounts of unpaid family workers and secondary employment groups. Of these secondary jobs, self-employed individuals held 90 percent of them. Industry Service-providing Industries. Shifts in the long run from goods to service producing are likely to grow. Of the 22 million jobs increase expected to take place in wage and salary jobs over the next decade, almost 21 million of these are likely to be service-oriented. Education and health services industries are expected to grow faster than any other industry, accounting for a projected 25 percent of job creation. Healthcare and social assistance, which includes nursing facilities, family services, and private hospitals, will add more than 4 million jobs. This growth is affected by growing health and social service demand as a result of an aging society and longer lives. Childcare services are also likely to grow in demand due to the growing number of women in the workforce. Private educational services are likely to add over 700,000 jobs by 2012 as demand for educational services results from rising school enrollments. Professional and business services will grow by nearly adding 5 million jobs in what are some of the country's fastest growing firms. By 2012, waste management occupations and administrative and support positions will grow by adding 2.8 million jobs. Employment services will grow the most rapidly, increasing by more than 50 percent and accounting for nearly two-thirds of overall job creation in this sector. Above all other industries, it is expected that employment services will account for some of the greatest levels of job creation in the country over the next eight years. By 2012, jobs in scientific, technical, and professional services are expected to add nearly 1.9 million jobs. Of these services jobs, more than 33 percent of them will be related to computer systems design. This growth is marked by the demands placed on information technology and network and system security. Other services, including those offered by management and technical consultants, will grow as a result of sophisticated business and computer technology. Company management practices are expected to add nearly 200,000 jobs. Information. By 2012, 632,000 jobs are expected to be created in the information sector. This sector includes fast growing industries such as Internet marketing and service providers, data processing services; web portals; and publishers for software, telecommunications, and print media. Growing demand for cable, wireless, high-speed Internet, and other related services will spur job growth in this area. Leisure and hospitality oriented jobs will grow by nearly 18 percent. By 2012, entertainment, recreation, and the arts will add nearly a half-million jobs, most of them coming from gambling and amusement. Sources of occupational growth include greater public involvement with the arts recreation, and entertainment as result of rising degrees of incomes, health consciousness, and free time. Food and accommodation services are projected to add approximately 1.6 million jobs over the next eight years. Most of this growth will occur in food and drink services as a result of rising populations, dining consciousness, and family income. Trade, transportation, and utilities. By 2012, jobs in this sector are projected to grow by 14 percent. 914,000 jobs will be added to warehousing and transportation industries and 275,000 will be added to the truck transportation industry. Jobs in the rail and water transportation industries are expected to decline in growth, while warehousing and storage industries will experience nearly 29 percent growth. Couriers and messengers industries are projected to grow at nearly 42 percent. As manufacturers focus on their essential capacities and sub-contract their operations, demand for warehousing and transportation services will ultimately grow. Retail employment is expected to reach job levels of around 17 million, reflecting income and population growth. Wholesale trade is projected to reach job levels of 6.3 million. Utility industry jobs are expected to experience decline, including jobs related to electric power generation and gas distribution. This is in part due to advances in technological production and efficiency. On the other hand, by 2012, water and sewage industries are projected to grow by 46 percent because they rely heavily on manual labor. Financial activities are expected to experience around 12 percent growth for related jobs in the next decade. This includes 374,000 new jobs in real estate due to growing populations. Industrial and commercial machinery and rental is projected to experience the largest growth at about 40 percent. By 2012, insurance and finance will experience growth upwards to around 10 percent. Jobs related to commodity contracting, securities and other investments will enjoy 16 percent growth due to the growing use of retirement plans and savings among baby-boomers. This is in addition to the expansion of securities markets throughout the world. Bank and credit employment will account for 50 percent of all job growth in the financial industry. Insurance jobs will experience 168,000 new jobs and all insurance, brokerage, and agency occupations will enjoy nearly 15 percent growth. Government employment is projected to experience approximately 12 percent growth rate through 2012, adding almost 3 million jobs. As the roles of States and local government increase in certain jurisdictions, so will job and career opportunities. Local governments are anticipated to add around 1.3 million jobs, and State educational services will add 388,000 new jobs. Marginal 1 percent growth in the Federal Government is due to its job contracting to the private sector. Other services (except government). Employment is expected to grow by nearly 16 percent. Jobs in religious groups will account for more than 40 percent of growth in this sector, and personal care service will grow the most rapidly at almost 28 percent. Declining rates are expected for services jobs in private households. Goods-producing industries. Since the 1980's jobs in goods-producing industries has experienced slow if any growth. Over the next decade, these industries are projected to experience 3.3 percent growth rate although this will vary considerably. Construction jobs are projected to add one million jobs at 15 percent growth rate. This reflects growing demand for new infrastructure and housing developments. Manufacturing jobs are expected to experience a 1 percent decline although this varies between industries-machinery, plastic and rubber, and pharmaceutical manufacturing will each add between 60,000 to 138,000 jobs over the next eight years. Nonetheless, employment in other areas such as textiles and computer products will lose anywhere between 136,000 to 245,000 jobs due to increased global competition, job automation, and other gains in production. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting jobs are projected to experience a 2 percent decline as a result of production and technological gains. Forestry and agricultural will likely be the only two industries in this sector to experience a net increase. Within these industries, farm management and labor contractors will be part of an overall 18 percent increase. Mining industries are projected to lose around 60,000 jobs. This includes a near 30 percent and 39 percent decline in coal and metal mining, respectively. Energy source mining is also anticipated to decline by 28 percent. This decline reflects advancements in production and technology, global competition, and Federal restrictions on land use and environment concerns. Occupation Job growth will vary between different service industries. The overall growth of these industries ultimately means more job opportunities. Professional and related occupations will likely experience the most rapid growth among all sectors. Over the next eight years, these industries will add 6.5 million jobs in both public and private sectors. About 75 % of this growth will occur in healthcare, computer, and educational occupations, adding about 4.9 million jobs collectively. Service occupations, which provide public services, will increase by 20 percent, following professional fields as the most rapid growing industry among all sectors. The majority of job growth will be among food services, although health services jobs will grow the most rapidly at 35 percent. Management, business, and financial occupations, which direct government and business activity, will experience 15 percent growth over the next eight years. The fastest growth in management industries will occur between computer systems and education management, while operational management will enjoy the most actual job growth at 376,000 new jobs. Farming occupations will experience significant decline (a 238,000 net job loss). The concentration of job growth in business and financial industries will be shared between auditors and accountants, enjoying 381,000 new jobs. The most rapid growth will occur within management analysis (30 percent growth) and financial advisement (35 percent growth) occupational groups. Construction and extraction occupations which are involved with building-construction and mining will experience 15 percent growth by 2012, with 75 % of this taking place inside construction oriented industries. Mining and resource extraction occupations will experience relative decline. Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations, which are involved with installing and repairing various kinds of equipment, will enjoy a near 14 percent growth rate by 2012. Approximately 40 percent of this growth will occur within auto mechanic and general repair service industries. Refrigeration, air-conditioning, and heating installation industries will grow the fastest, experiencing a 32 percent increase over the next eight years. Transportation and material moving occupations, which are involved with transporting materials and people, will add 1.3 million jobs over the next eight years (13 percent growth). Vehicle operators will grow the most with 760,000 additional jobs, while rail transportation jobs will lose jobs with a 5.4 percent decline. Finally, material moving jobs are projected to experience 9 percent growth. Sales and related occupations, which move products and services between consumers and businesses, will grow by nearly 13 percent by 2012 with 2 million new jobs. The majority of this growth (about 1 million jobs) will occur in actual cashiering and sales occupations. Office and administrative support occupations, which are involved with everyday office work, are expected to experience a growth of 1.6 million new jobs over the next eight-year period. Most of these jobs will occur within the customer service industry; desktop publishing will be one of the most rapidly growing industries, experiencing nearly 30 percent growth by 2012. Among industries with the greatest expectations of decline, administration and office support jobs will account for just over half of this loss. Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations, which cultivate livestock and agriculture stocks, will experience 3.3 percent job growth over the next eight years. Most of this growth will occur among agricultural farmers, while fishing and logging industries will share the burden of decline. Production occupations, which are involved with plan manufacturing of products, will experience minimal growth rates of 3.2 percent over the next eight years. Most job creation will occur among machinery, welding, soldering and brazing, cutting, and food processing industries, while furnishing, apparel, and textile jobs will share the burden of production job losses. The most rapid job growth in the economy will occur among health and computer industries. Of the top 20 industries with the most positive expectations for growth, half fall within healthcare and 25 percent are computer-oriented occupations. These two industries will create 1.5 million jobs as the demand for health services and data processing rises to un-before seen levels. Jobs with the most rapid rates of growth are concentrated in fewer industries than those that will experience the most added jobs. Jobs in health, education, transportation, food service, office support, sales, and other larger industries will experience greater job growth than industries with rapid growth rates. Only 10 percent of these industries with the fastest rates will also be among the top 20 industries with greatest net job growth. Advancements in production, business, and technological capacities affect declining job numbers. This is especially so in farming industries that are expected to see a 238,000 net job loss over the next eight-year period. Most of these declining industries are in office support and production, as plant and office automation and software requires less manual operation. The widening use of personal computers is reducing the need for specialized typists to perform specific tasks. Education and Training Career education is a standard requisite for high paying jobs. Of the 50 highest paying occupations, only air traffic controllers are without need for an education. Typical qualification for half of the top 20 growing industries is an associate's degree or bachelor's degree. These jobs include: physician assistants; computer software engineers for systems and applications; health and medical technicians; data communications and network analysts; veterinarians; and dental hygienists. The balance of the top 20 growing industries requires some form of job training. These jobs include: physical therapist, social, dental, personal care, occupational therapist, and medical assistants, and hazardous material removal workers. Of the top 20 jobs with greatest net job gains, only three of these require some degree-postsecondary teachers, operations managers, and registered nurses. Of the top 20 industries with the greatest net job losses, only one of them, travel agents, does not require on-job training but rather a vocational degree or license. Total Job Openings Employee transfers (replacement needs) and general industry growth creates job openings. Replacement needs will constitute the majority of the 56 million new openings expected to become available in the next eight-year period. This offers a positive outlook for job openings in industries with stagnant or declining job growth rates. Job creation and growth rates are projected to be greatest in professional and related industries. Of this growth, 75 percent is expected to occur within health, education, and computer sectors. This industry will likely constitute 6.5 million new jobs due to growth, while adding 5.3 million jobs through general replacement needs-the only industry to attribute more openings to growth rather than to replacement needs. Replacement needs among service occupations will be the highest among all occupations. Turnover rates and consequent replacement needs are highest among industries with low wages. Administration and office support job growth is likely to remain stagnant and, in some cases, decline. This industry will experience an additional 7.5 million jobs in the next eight-year period. Job growth in farming, forestry, and fishing industries will be slow and have few openings due to growth (an estimated 335,000 openings). Moreover, high turnover rates and retirement levels mean that most of these openings (greater than 85 percent) will result from replacement needs. |
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